The Analysts Association expects GDP to grow 3.3% in 2024, fund flows flowing into the second half of the year.

Bangkok, The Analysts Association expects GDP to grow 3.3% in 2024. Digital wallets add another 0.6% to GDP, while EPS grows 12%. The economy is good, world interest rates are lower, supporting the SET Index at the end of the year up 1,590 points, expecting funds. flow returns in the second half of the year. Recommend investing in Thai ESG from the beginning of the year. Mr. Sombat Narawutthichai, Secretary-General of the Investment Analysts Association Revealing the results of a survey of opinions of analyst members and mutual fund managers from 26 agencies on the direction of investing in By the main assumption This year's average crude oil price is 80.24 USD per barrel, forecasting the expansion of Thai GDP in 2024 from the original 3.56% (Oct. 2023) reduced to 3.33%. This is the Risk Free Rate used in valuation. The average is 2.92% and the stock market's Risk Premium is 7.68%. Forecasting the BoT's policy interest rate at the end of 2024, there are 62.50% of analysts who expect it to stay at the same level of 2.50%, followed by 20.83% of respondents who think it will go down to 2.25%, and 12.50% of respondents saw that it would go down to 2.00%. However, 4.17% of respondents viewed in the opposite direction that the policy interest rate would increase to 2.75%. As for the SET Index, it is expected to close at the end of the first quarter of 2024 at 1476 points and when looking at the whole year. will fluctuate in the range of 1340 to 1612 points, closing at the end of 2024 at 1590 points. Factors affecting investment direction until the end of 2024 are divided into : Positive factors with more than 50% of the respondents voting, leading The operating results of the company in 2024 had 92.59% of respondents. The next factor was 92.31% who voted for the direction of US interest rates. Followed by the domestic economy, with 85.19% of respondents, and Fund Flows from abroad to the Thai stock market with 66.67% of respondents, respectively. As for the negative factors, they come from the reduction or term ination of quantitative easing (QE) measures of important countries around the world. word There were 81.48% of respondents, followed by 80%, followed by political factors in foreign countries with 71.43% of respondents, followed by global economic factors with 59.26% of respondents respectively. The market's expected average net earnings per share (EPS) in 2024 is 95.62 baht, downgraded from the previous survey, which was 99.47 baht per share, and it is expected that EPS Growth in 2024 will average 12.32%. Analysts recommend that there will be Diversification of the investment portfolio is divided into : o Cash and short-term deposits 8.96% o Debt funds 25.63% o Stocks or foreign stock funds 23.67% o Thai stocks or Thai stock funds 22.79% o Real estate funds or REIT 9.17 % o Gold or gold funds 8.75% o Other assets such as Bitcoin, oil 1.03% For perspectives on foreign investment Recommend investing in US stock funds. Especially large technology groups and Selective Asia such as Korea and Vietnam, wh ile investing in Thai stocks It is recommended to increase investment weight in the business categories: retail, food, finance/securities. and tourism while reducing investment weight. Construction business category real estate People with high debt and insurance business List of stocks that are recommended by analysts from 5 or more agencies together with main supporting points. They are as follows (arranged by abbreviation): AOT sees benefits from improved tourism. In 2024, it expects 34.5-35 million tourists, from 27-28 million in 2023. It is expected to see additional government measures to support it. And besides the operating results will recover according to tourism. Still in the process of studying the PSC fee increase and fee collection. Transit/Transfer Including waiting to receive the transfer of 3 airports from the Department of Airports. CPALL, supported by high season tourism and economic stimulus measures from the government, Easy E-Receipt, as well as an increase in the minimum wage, includ ing digital wallets in 2024, help support spending. CPN sees that it benefits from the government's economic stimulus measures. and the tourism sector continues to recover as well. There are also plans to open new projects in the long term. Viewed as a stock that should be a target for the ThaiESG fund. GPSC has a supporting factor from falling Bond Yields and expects profits in 2024 to grow 31%, recovering as electricity prices are expected to gradually increase. Meanwhile, gas costs tend to gradually decrease. For stocks that should be avoided include DELTA stock, whose fundamentals are far overvalued. and individual stocks with high borrowing burden/capital increase Analysts also have suggestions to the government regarding policies that will have a positive effect on the economy. It is worth the budget impact. Most of them mentioned measures to stimulate the economy in both the short term and the long term. Separated into public investments that support economic growth potential. Accelerate investment in infrastructure Next is assistance to the public sector. Measures to reduce the cost of living. However, regarding the policy for distributing money I want it to be changed to a project to stimulate consumption. (similar to half each person) or the policy of shopping to help the nation and followed by proposing policies to help the business sector, including Policy to stimulate foreign investment Accelerate plans to upgrade Thai manufacturing potential and promote FDI in new industries. Including stimulating private investment in the country regarding New technology and ESG. Mr. Sombat further stated the policy. digital wallet that analysts have not given clear weight to this matter But personally, I think If it's really possible to practice It will have an effect on people's spending. and have shares that will receive benefits As for the negative results, we still have to wait and see. But it is believed that it will not affect the stock market. However, if the digital wallet policy If it doesn't actually happen, it is estimated that GDP will still reach 3%. As for fund flow, it is expected that this year there will be an opportunity to see fund flow flowing back in. Because the government has a clear economic and trade policy. which aims to successfully manage the goals Viewed as another opportunity to attract investment, while investing in Thai ESG funds is interesting. long term funds Tax deductible And it is expected that this year sales will likely exceed 10,000 million baht. 'Anyone who thinks stocks are cheap There is a tax base of more than 30%, hurry to buy from the beginning of the year. It is expected that the investment amount this year will reach 10,000 million baht because there is a full year. And people are more familiar with investing in Thai ESG funds, different from last year. with a very short sales time.' Mr. Apichart's side Phubanjerdkul, CISA, Senior Director of TISCO Securities, admits that predicting fund flow is quite difficult as it must take into account both the value of the bah t and the economic situation. And it is expected that during May the draft Budget Act for 2024 will come into effect. This is considered to be more positive momentum for the economy. It is seen that in the second half of the year there should be an opportunity for fund flows to flow back in. 'As for the digital wallet policy, From the opinion of some analysts that GDP in 2024 may be on top up to 3.5%, so if the policy Digital wallets actually come into existence, giving GDP a chance to go up to 4%." Source: Thai News Agency