Bangkok, May 24 - Kasikorn Bank expects the next month, the baht will fluctuate high in the range of 33.80-35.40 baht per dollar. according to the Fed signal Ready to maintain GDP growth in 2023 at 3.7%, 30 million people benefit from tourism, 2.3% growth in government investment, keeping an eye on wages to drive inflation
Mr. Kobsit Silpachai, Economic and Capital Market Research Executive Kasikorn Bank revealed that Kasikorn Bank still estimates the GDP growth rate for the year 2023 at 3.7% driven by the tourism sector. which is expected to have approximately 28.5-30 million tourists, if from the beginning of the year to April 2023 there are approximately 8.6 million tourists and in the first quarter of 2023 there is a total of 63.5 billion in tourism spending. baht, although the numbers are still far from the pre-Covid-19 period. but the trend is improving which is part of the factor that makes the baht appreciate and the current account balance can turn positive.
While public investment is expected to expand by 2.3%, despite concerns that the establishment of a new government will affect the investment budget. If you look at the year 2014, there was a coup d'état. It can be seen that the investment budget is 2.88 billion baht and after the budget is dismantled and the government is established. It was found that the number of investments gradually increased continuously. Currently, the average is 4.60 billion baht per year. Or an average growth of more than 2% per year and the average disbursement ratio is 74% of the budget set.
However, the policy of political parties or the new government that wants to increase wages by 450 baht per day is seen as affecting the movement of investment to Vietnam. and if there is an acceleration of more income May be pressure on rising inflation. Because the information found The relationship between income and inflation is as high as 90%.
As for the direction of the baht in the next 1 month, there will be more volatility. by moving within the range of 33.80-35.40 baht per dollar Because we have to wait and see what the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will signal at a meeting in June. to wait and see the situation first
The trend of capital movement (fund flow) will start to see a direction to flow back in after the meeting in September. It will flow into the Asian market in the third quarter of 2023 and by the fourth quarter of 2023, there will be signs of capital flows into the Thai market. Part of this is due to the factors in the Thai tourism sector that has a good growth rate. because it is during the tourist season make the baht appreciate which is the main factor that investors are interested in the Thai market therefore assessing the value of the baht at the end of 2023, appreciating at 33.80 baht per dollar.-Thai News Agency
Source: Thai News Agency